Bullish

Bullish: Hedge funds (Managed Money) are net long while institutions (Swaps) are net short/hedging.

This setup is bullish, but late-cycle: when Managed Money net longs are stretched and Swap Dealers are heavily net short, upside can slow and volatility or pullbacks become more likely.

Participation & Positioning Overview

(As of December 26, 2025 from December 9, 2025 )
Open Interest: 761,051 contracts
Net weekly change: +77,147.
Participation broadened materially.
Share of OI: Managed Money long 20.2% (below typical) vs Swaps short 32.7% (below typical)
Banks hold more open interest than speculators. This usually means the market is being driven more by steady hedging rather than fast speculative trading.
Managed Money net: +134,130 contracts (20.2% of OI)
Funds long exposure is stretched versus recent norms.
Positioning: 153,882 long / 19,752 short → +134,130 net.

Changes since December 9, 2025
+124,637 net → This week +134,130 net.
Δ +9,493 contracts — Funds increased net long exposure, adding bullish pressure.
Swap Dealers net: -218,341 contracts (32.7% of OI)
Banks net short hedge is heavy, showing strong hedging activity that can slow upside if it continues.
Positioning: 30,817 long / 249,158 short → -218,341 net.

Changes since December 9, 2025
-201,941 net → This week -218,341 net.
Δ +16,400 contracts — Banks increased their net short hedge, adding selling pressure that can slow upside momentum.
Concentration: Largest 8-or-less held 41.2% of shorts.
A few big traders are holding most of the short positions. If they start buying to close their shorts, it could trigger a short squeeze and push prices upward faster than usual.
Other Reportables: 110,724 long / 26,129 short → +84,595 net
Other large traders snapshot.

Legend

Producer/Merchant/Processor/User
Mining companies, refiners, jewelers, and others tied to physical gold; they mostly hedge to manage business risk.
Managed Money
Hedge funds and professional traders betting on price direction.
Swap Dealers
Banks and institutions, often hedging customer trades or OTC positions.
Other Reportables
Large traders like prop desks and family offices that don’t fit other categories.
Non-Reportables
Smaller players, including retail traders.
Hedged / Hedging
Taking positions that offset risk from other exposures. For example, shorting futures to protect against losses if other holdings are long.
Source: CFTC Disaggregated COT (Futures & Options Combined). Contract size: 100 troy ounces.
Generated Dec 27, 2025 04:33 AM PST